Burden, trends, and projections of prostate cancer: global cancer statistics (GLOBOCAN) estimates for 2024 and 2022.

Abstract

Prostate cancer remains a major health burden with substantial epidemiological disparities. Integrating updated estimates is essential for understanding evolving disease patterns and guiding future health policies. Using GLOBOCAN 2024, we systematically analyzed prostate cancer incidence and mortality across 186 countries, stratified by United Nations regions, age at onset (<50 vs. ≥50 years), and Human Development Index (HDI). Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change, and future burden was projected to 2050 assuming constant age-specific rates. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated as a surrogate for health-system performance. In 2024, an estimated 1,546,112 new cases (ASIR 29.30/100,000) and 419,849 deaths (ASMR 7.50/100,000) occurred globally, an increase of 5% from 2022. North America had the highest incidence (ASIR 80.82/100,000), whereas mortality was highest in the Caribbean (28.55/100,000) and Western Africa (24.60/100,000). Very-high-HDI countries had the highest incidence but favourable MIRs (∼0.13 in U.S.), whereas low-HDI countries had MIRs of ∼0.62 (Nigeria), signalling major diagnostic and therapeutic gaps. Temporal trends showed rising incidence in Africa and Asia, with declining mortality in most regions except Africa; early-onset mortality increased in Asia and Oceania. By 2050, global cases and deaths are projected to rise substantially, with the largest proportional increases in Africa; early-onset cases will decline in Eastern Asia, South America, and most of Europe. The global prostate cancer burden is shifting towards transitioning countries, where low MIRs reveal major gaps in early detection. Prioritising risk-stratified screening and strengthening health-system infrastructure in resource-limited settings are urgently needed to guide global policy.