The 2026 Oceania Report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Children Already Impacted, With a Lifetime of Exposure to Come.

Abstract

The Medical Journal of Australia (MJA)-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Oceania was established in 2017 and produced its first regional assessment in 2018 and annual updates from 2019 to 2025. It examines five broad domains: (1) health hazards, exposures and impacts; (2) adaptation, planning and resilience for health; (3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (4) economics and finance; and (5) public and political engagement. In this, the eighth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our analyses show that exposure of infants and older adults to heatwaves in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand has increased substantially over the past decade due to climate change, and half of the 16,230 young Australians aged 14-19 years surveyed reported that they are worried or sad about the impacts of climate change, including its threat to people, and about 1 in 7 reported that such feelings are negatively affecting their daily life. Increasing heat-related mortality alone is placing a large economic burden on Australians, with associated inflation-adjusted costs over the period 2021-2025 being more than double what they were at the start of the century, now averaging an estimated US$1.49 billion per year nationally. In other areas, some progress is being made. New Zealand's Health National Adaptation Plan 2024-2027, published in October 2024, lays the foundation for building climate resilience within its health system, while acknowledging the environmental and social determinants of health that apply more broadly. The provision of climate services to the health sector in both Australia and New Zealand is categorised as advanced. In Australia, healthcare-related greenhouse gas emissions generally declined from 2016 to 2023. In conclusion, the threat to physical and mental health from climate change continues to grow. Despite pockets of progress, Australia and New Zealand have a long way to go to adequately mitigate and adapt to climate change, and in so doing not only avoid health impacts but seize the opportunity for generational health gains. Important opportunities have been lost, such as the failed attempts to amend Australia's Climate Change Act 2022 to 'require decision-makers to consider the health and well-being of children in Australia when making significant decisions'. In 2026, Australia is in the spotlight as President of Negotiations for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31)-an unprecedented opportunity for the Australian Government to push through the sizable step change in global climate action that is now critically required.