Longitudinal ctDNA tracking in early and recurrent breast cancer using an ultrasensitive structural variant-based assay: an extended analysis from the TRACER study.

Abstract

Detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) following curative-intent therapy is prognostic of disease recurrence in early-stage breast cancer (EBC). An ultrasensitive structural variant (SV)-based ctDNA assay was evaluated previously in a 100-patient EBC cohort treated with neoadjuvant therapy, demonstrating high sensitivity, specificity, and a long lead-time to relapse. The stability of primary tumor-specific SVs at and after metastatic recurrence and their utility for longer-term ctDNA monitoring had not been established. An updated retrospective analysis of ctDNA dynamics was conducted in an expanded cohort of 121 patients with EBC treated with neoadjuvant therapy. Plasma samples were collected at key clinical timepoints and serially in several patients who experienced metastatic recurrence. Clinical variables were abstracted from medical records. Associations between ctDNA detection, dynamics, and clinical outcomes were evaluated in the early-stage and metastatic settings. Thirty of 121 patients experienced clinical recurrence (28 distant, 2 local) over a median follow-up of 4.2 years (range 0.5-8.8; 25 ctDNA evaluable with adjuvant timepoints). All patients with detectable ctDNA in the adjuvant setting developed metastatic recurrence (22/22). Median lead time from ctDNA detection to metastatic recurrence was 346 days (range 0-1937). Among recurrent cases, 79% of primary tumor-specific SVs (n = 17 patients, tumor fraction ≥0.1%) remained detectable in plasma [range 7% (1/14 SV)-100% (15/15); median: 92%]. ctDNA dynamics in the recurrent metastatic setting demonstrated a strong relationship with radiographic outcomes in evaluable patients (n = 9). This SV-based digital PCR assay provided ultrasensitive ctDNA detection in an expanded EBC cohort, maintaining 100% positive predictive value for metastatic recurrence. In patients with recurrence, ctDNA dynamics were concordant with radiographic outcomes. Prospective studies evaluating the clinical utility of longitudinal ctDNA monitoring are warranted.